Haufinyane tjena, k'hamphani ea boeletsi ea Fitch - Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (BMI), Benchmark Mineral Intelligence e lokolitse tlaleho ea ponelopele, 2023-2027, sekhahla sa kholo ea selemo le selemo sa tlhahiso ea tšepe ea lefats'e e lebelletsoe ho ba 2.3%, Lilemong tse hlano tse fetileng (2017- 2022), index e ne e le -0.7%.Sena se tla thusa ho matlafatsa tlhahiso ea tšepe ea tšepe ka lithane tse limilione tse 372.8 ka 2027 ha ho bapisoa le 2022, tlaleho e boletse.
Ka nako e ts'oanang, lebelo la tlhahiso ea tšepe lefatšeng ka bophara le tla potlakisa le ho feta.
Tlaleho e bontšitse hore keketseho ea kamoso ea phepelo ea tšepe lefatšeng ka bophara e tla tsoa haholo ho tsoa Brazil le Australia.Hona joale, Vale o senotse leano le sebetsang la katoloso ho lefatše le kantle.Ka nako e tšoanang, BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, FMG le eona e rera ho tsetela mererong e mecha ea katoloso.Mehlala e kenyeletsa Borokho ba Tšepe, bo ntseng bo lateloa ke FMG, le Gudai Darri, bo ntseng bo lateloa ke Rio Tinto.
Tlaleho e boletse hore lilemong tse tharo ho isa ho tse 'nè tse tlang, tlhahiso ea tšepe ea Chaena e tla eketseha.Hona joale, Chaena e leka ho eketsa boemo ba ho iphelisa le ho itokolla butle-butle ho itšetlehile ka merafo ea Australia.Tsoelo-pele e sebetsang ea "morero oa lejoe la sekhutlo" e khothalelitse katoloso ea tlhahiso ea likhoebo tsa merafo ea Machaena, hape e potlakisitse nts'etsopele ea merafo ea tekano mose ho maoatle ke lik'hamphani tsa Machaena tse kang Baowu, joalo ka projeke ea Xipo ea China Baowu le Rio Tinto.Tlaleho e lebelletse hore lik'hamphani tsa China tse kholo li tla etelletsa pele matsete merafong ea tšepe ea mose ho maoatle, joalo ka morafo o moholo oa Simandou.
Tlaleho e boetse e bolela esale pele hore ho tloha 2027 ho ea ho 2032, karolelano ea selemo le selemo ea kholo ea tlhahiso ea tšepe ea lefats'e e lebelletsoe ho ba -0.1%.Ho ea ka tlaleho, ho fokotseha ha kholo ea tlhahiso ho ka 'na ha bakoa ke merafo e menyenyane e koalang le theko e tlaase ea tšepe e bakang basebetsi ba merafong ba bangata ho fokotsa matsete mererong e mecha.
Ho ea ka tlaleho, ho tloha 2023 ho ea 2027, tlhahiso ea tšepe ea Australia e tla hōla ka karolelano ea selemo le selemo ea kholo ea 0.2%.Ho tlalehoa hore ka karolelano litšenyehelo tsa tlhahiso ea tšepe ea tšepe Australia ke $ 30 / ton, Afrika Bophirimela ke $ 40 / ton ~ $ 50 / ton, 'me Chaena ke $ 90 / ton.Kahobane Australia e le botlaaseng ba litjeho tsa lefatše tsa tšepe, ho lebelletsoe hore e fane ka tšireletso e phetseng hantle khahlano le ho oa ha litheko tsa lefatše tsa tšepe lilemong tse 'maloa tse tlang.
Tlhahiso ea tšepe ea Brazil e ikemiselitse ho nyoloha lilemong tse 'maloa tse tlang.Ho ea ka tlaleho, sena se bakoa haholo-holo ka lebaka la litšenyehelo tse tlase tsa tlhahiso le ts'ebetso ea sebaka seo, mehloli ea merero e lekaneng, ho fana ka lisebelisoa, le botumo bo ntseng bo eketseha ba baetsi ba litšepe ba Machaena.Tlaleho e bolela esale pele hore ho tloha 2023 ho ea ho 2027, tlhahiso ea tšepe ea Brazil e tla hōla ka karolelano ea selemo le selemo ea kholo ea 3.4%, ho tloha ho lithane tse limilione tse 56,1 ho ea ho lithane tse limilione tse 482,9 ka selemo.Leha ho le joalo, ha nako e ntse e ea, tekanyo ea kholo ea tlhahiso ea tšepe Brazil e tla fokotseha, 'me karolelano ea selemo le selemo e lebeletsoe ho ba 1.2% ho tloha 2027 ho ea 2032,' me tlhahiso e tla fihla ho lithane tse limilione tse 507.5 / selemo ka 2032.
Ho phaella moo, tlaleho e boetse e senotse hore morafo oa Vale's Serra Norte oa Gelado ore o tla atolosa tlhahiso selemong sena;Morero oa N3 o lebelletsoe ho qala ka 2024;Porojeke ya S11D e se e phahamiseditse tlhahiso dikotareng tse tharo tsa pele tsa selemo sa ditjhelete, e thusa ho matlafatsa tlhahiso ya tshepe ka diperesente tse 5.8 selemo le selemo ho ya ho dithane tse 66.7m, mme projeke e lebeletswe ho atolosa bokgoni ka dithane tse 30m ka selemo. .